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For most shoppers, buying a smartwatch now rather than waiting makes sense: no major brand has raised wearable prices yet, and the memory chip shortage driving up phone and PC prices is forecast to persist through 2027 or later, so 'waiting for it to blow over' isn't a realistic near-term strategy.

“Should I buy now or wait for prices to come down?” is a reasonable question during any tech shortage — but the 2026 memory chip shortage isn’t the kind that resolves in a few weeks. If you’re shopping for a smartwatch and hesitating because of headlines about phone and laptop prices spiking, here’s a timeline-based way to think through the decision, grounded in what’s actually been confirmed rather than what feels intuitively likely.

The Short Answer

Buy now if you’ve found a smartwatch that fits your needs and budget at today’s price. The memory shortage pushing up phone, PC, console, and headset prices in 2026 has not yet reached wearable pricing, and there’s no credible near-term catalyst — like a chip glut or a supply correction — that would make waiting pay off. The realistic best case for waiting is “prices stay flat a while longer”; the realistic worst case is “the model discontinues or its specs get quietly trimmed at the next refresh.”

Timeline: What’s Happened So Far in 2026

  • Late 2025: DDR5 spot pricing began climbing sharply — from roughly $6.84 in September to about $27.20 by December, driven by AI data-center demand pulling memory-chip supply away from consumer electronics.
  • Early 2026: NAND flash prices jumped 55-60% in a single quarter. Consumer DDR5 kits that cost under $90 in early 2025 were selling for $529-600 by Q2 2026.
  • Q1-Q2 2026: Manufacturers started passing costs to consumers. Samsung’s Galaxy S26/S26+ launched $100 above predecessor pricing. Microsoft raised Surface prices by up to $500 and its Xbox console by $100-150. Meta raised the Quest 3 price by $100. Sony, Nintendo, MSI, and Asus all raised gaming-hardware prices citing memory costs directly.
  • Mid-2026: Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices over rising memory costs, according to Fortune’s June 2026 reporting — notable because Apple typically avoids visible, cost-driven price changes.
  • Throughout 2026: Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and Asus warned of 15-20% PC price increases for the year. Xiaomi/Redmi told customers to expect 20-30% hikes.
  • As of August 2026: No major wearable brand — Apple, Samsung, Garmin, Fitbit, Whoop, or Oura — has announced a smartwatch or fitness tracker price increase tied to the shortage.

Timeline: What Could Happen Next

  • Q3-Q4 2026 (component sourcing season): Wearable manufacturers typically lock in the following year’s component costs and pricing during this window. If DRAM/NAND prices are still elevated, this is the point where any pass-through into 2027 wearables would most plausibly get decided — though it wouldn’t show up in stores until next year’s launches.
  • Holiday 2026: Watch for promotional pricing on current-generation devices as retailers clear inventory ahead of new releases — historically one of the better windows to buy regardless of shortage dynamics.
  • 2027: Gartner’s memflation forecast doesn’t expect meaningful pricing relief until late 2027 at the earliest. IDC projects supply growth of only 16-17% in 2026, well short of demand, and there’s no indication that gap closes quickly. SK Hynix has separately warned the shortage could persist past 2030 in a worst-case scenario.
  • 2028: Gartner expects the sub-$500 laptop segment to disappear entirely. If a similar dynamic ever reaches wearables, the more likely form is fewer ultra-budget models on shelves rather than existing models getting dramatically pricier — see our deeper look at budget smartwatches under $100 potentially disappearing in 2026.

Reasons to Buy Now

  • No wearable price increases are currently in effect, unlike phones, PCs, and consoles.
  • The shortage is forecast to persist for years, not months — waiting for it to “pass” isn’t a realistic short-term strategy.
  • Discontinuation risk is arguably bigger than price risk for the model you actually want, especially at the budget end of the market.
  • Current-gen models are well-documented and reviewed — you know exactly what you’re getting, versus gambling on next year’s specs.

Reasons to Wait

  • A known sale event is imminent (Black Friday, a manufacturer’s anniversary sale) — a specific, dated discount is a better reason to wait than a general hope that prices will drop.
  • You don’t urgently need the device and would rather see how 2027 wearable launches shake out before committing.
  • You’re comparing multiple upcoming models — if a specific watch you want is rumored to launch in the next month or two, it may be worth seeing the new pricing before buying the outgoing model.

What Smartwatch Buyers Specifically Should Know

Wearables are structurally different from the categories already hit by memflation. A smartwatch uses a fraction of the DRAM and NAND flash that a phone or laptop needs, so the shortage’s direct cost impact on a watch’s bill of materials is smaller. That’s a real reason for cautious optimism — but it’s not a guarantee, since wearable makers share suppliers with the phone and PC makers who have already raised prices. For a fuller breakdown of that mechanism, see our explainer on why smartwatches are getting more expensive in 2026.

How This Decision Differs From Buying a Laptop or Phone Right Now

If you’re used to general “should I buy tech now” advice from 2026 coverage, it’s worth flagging why the smartwatch answer diverges from the laptop or phone answer. For a laptop or phone, the honest advice right now leans more toward “buy now if you must, but expect this generation to be pricier than it should be” — the cost increase is already baked into current shelf prices in those categories. For a smartwatch, the advice is closer to “buy now with more confidence,” because the price you see today hasn’t been inflated by the shortage the way phone and laptop prices already have. You’re not paying a shortage premium on a smartwatch the way you would be on a new laptop purchased this month — which is arguably the more favorable position to be shopping from.

A Practical Framework for the Decision

If you want a simple way to decide without tracking every headline, ask three questions:

  1. Does a specific model at a specific price meet my needs today? If yes, the case for waiting weakens substantially — you already know what you’re getting.
  2. Is a known sale event (Black Friday, a manufacturer anniversary sale, back-to-school promotions) within the next few weeks? If yes, it’s reasonable to wait for that specific, dated opportunity rather than buying at full price right before a predictable discount.
  3. Am I waiting because of a specific rumored launch, or a vague sense that “prices might drop”? The first is a legitimate reason to hold off a few weeks. The second isn’t well supported by anything in the current shortage data — there’s no forecast, from Gartner, IDC, or anyone else, suggesting smartwatch prices are about to fall.

Our Recommendation by Buyer Type

What About Trade-In and Resale Value?

One overlooked angle in the buy-now-or-wait debate: if the memory shortage does eventually push wearable prices up at a future launch, that would likely make current-generation and older devices more valuable on the resale and trade-in market, not less — a repricing up the stack tends to lift the whole used-device curve with it, the same pattern seen in laptop and phone resale markets since PC and phone prices started climbing in 2026. That’s not a reason to buy a smartwatch purely as an investment, but it does mean the downside of buying now and being “wrong” about future pricing is softer than it might first appear — you’re not locking in a device that’s guaranteed to lose relative value if the market shifts.

The Bottom Line

Waiting to buy a smartwatch on the assumption that the 2026 memory chip shortage will make it cheaper later is a bet with poor odds — the shortage is forecast to run through 2027 at minimum, and no wearable brand has cut prices or shows signs of doing so. If a specific holiday sale is close, it’s fine to wait a few weeks. Otherwise, current pricing on well-reviewed models is a reasonable place to buy. You can compare today’s smartwatch prices on Amazon or browse the top-selling fitness smartwatches across Fitbit, Garmin, Samsung, Amazfit, and Apple before making your call, and revisit this timeline periodically — the sourcing decisions made in late 2026 will be the clearest early indicator of where 2027 wearable pricing actually lands.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to buy a smartwatch?
Yes, for most buyers. Current smartwatch prices don't yet reflect the 2026 memory chip shortage the way phone, PC, and console prices do, and there's no clear signal that waiting a few months will produce a better price — the shortage is expected to continue into 2027 and possibly beyond.
Will smartwatch prices definitely go up later in 2026?
It's not confirmed. No major wearable brand has announced a price increase tied to the shortage as of August 2026. Prices could rise at the next product launch cycle, stay flat, or manufacturers could quietly reduce specs (shrinkflation) instead of raising sticker prices.
Should I wait for a holiday sale instead of buying now?
If a specific sale event is close (like Black Friday), it's reasonable to wait a few weeks for a known discount. But waiting indefinitely on the assumption that the shortage will end soon isn't well supported — Gartner's memflation forecast runs through 2027 at minimum.
Are budget smartwatches at more risk of price increases than premium ones?
Potentially, yes. Entry-level devices run on thinner margins, so any component cost increase is harder to absorb. Some analysts expect manufacturers to discontinue ultra-budget models rather than raise their prices, similar to Gartner's prediction that sub-$500 laptops will disappear by 2028.
What's the single biggest risk of waiting to buy a smartwatch?
That the model you want gets discontinued or has its specs quietly reduced in a refresh, rather than getting cheaper. Waiting for a price drop assumes the shortage resolves in your favor, but the current supply/demand imbalance is structural and not expected to reverse quickly.