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Entry-level smartwatches under $100 run on the thinnest margins in the category, which makes them the most exposed segment to the 2026 memory chip shortage — not because prices will spike, but because manufacturers are more likely to quietly discontinue budget models than eat rising component costs on razor-thin profit.

Most of the 2026 memory chip shortage coverage focuses on flagship phones and premium laptops. But if there’s one corner of the smartwatch market that should actually be paying closer attention, it’s the opposite end: budget smartwatches under $100. Here’s why — sorted through five common myths about how this shortage actually works, separating what’s been confirmed from what’s still speculation.

Myth 1: “All Smartwatch Prices Are About to Spike”

The fact: No major smartwatch brand — Apple, Samsung, Garmin, Fitbit, Amazfit, or otherwise — has announced a price increase tied to the 2026 memory chip shortage as of this writing. That’s despite phones, PCs, consoles, and headsets already seeing real, confirmed price hikes: Samsung’s Galaxy S26/S26+ launched $100 above predecessor pricing, Microsoft raised Surface prices by up to $500, and Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices, according to Fortune’s mid-2026 reporting. Smartwatches, across the board, have not followed yet. If you want the full explainer on why the mechanism hasn’t reached wearables broadly, see why smartwatches are getting more expensive in 2026.

Myth 2: “Budget Smartwatches Are Safe Because They’re Already Cheap”

The fact: This is backwards, and it’s the core reason this article exists. A budget smartwatch’s low price isn’t a shield against rising component costs — it’s the opposite. These devices are typically built on razor-thin margins to hit that sub-$100 price point in the first place. A premium $600+ smartwatch has room to absorb a modest per-unit cost increase without shoppers noticing. A $50-90 device often doesn’t have that room. When component costs rise, the mathematically easier move for a manufacturer is often to discontinue the thin-margin model rather than raise its price and risk it no longer qualifying as “budget” to the shoppers who buy it specifically for that reason.

Myth 3: “This Is Just Like the 2021 Chip Shortage, So It’ll Pass Quickly”

The fact: The two shortages have different causes and, more importantly, different expected durations. The 2021 shortage was driven largely by pandemic-related factory shutdowns and a temporary spike in consumer electronics demand — painful, but ultimately resolved within roughly a year or two, and it mostly showed up as longer wait times rather than discontinued product lines. The 2026 shortage is structural: an estimated $650 billion AI data-center buildout in 2026 alone is consuming roughly 70% of world memory-chip output, and IDC projects supply growth of only 16-17% in 2026 against much steeper demand. Gartner’s “memflation” forecast runs through late 2027 at the earliest, and SK Hynix has warned the imbalance could persist past 2030 in a worst-case scenario. That’s a materially longer runway, and it’s why the discontinuation risk for thin-margin products is being taken more seriously this time.

Myth 4: “Only Premium Brands Like Apple Will Be Affected”

The fact: It’s actually somewhat the reverse when you look at where the confirmed damage has landed so far. Gartner is explicitly forecasting that the sub-$500 laptop segment will disappear entirely by 2028 — not because premium laptops are getting more expensive, but because manufacturers can no longer build a profitable ultra-budget laptop at current memory component costs. That’s a direct precedent for what could happen to the cheapest tier of any device category, smartwatches included, even while premium models in the same category keep selling at adjusted prices. Budget smartwatches share the same basic economics as budget laptops: thin margins, high price sensitivity, and a shopper base that will walk away if the price moves even modestly.

Myth 5: “There’s Nothing Shoppers Can Do About It”

The fact: There’s actually a fairly clear, low-risk move here: if you’ve found a specific budget smartwatch you like at a price you’re comfortable with, buying it now rather than waiting removes the discontinuation risk entirely. Waiting for the shortage to “pass” and prices to drop isn’t well supported by the forecasts — nothing points to memory costs easing before late 2027 at the earliest, and budget hardware categories facing this kind of cost pressure historically shrink their lineup rather than get cheaper. Our buy now vs wait timeline breaks down the broader decision if you’re still on the fence.

What “Disappearing” Would Actually Look Like

It’s worth being concrete about what this risk means in practice, because “budget smartwatches might disappear” can sound more dramatic than the likely reality. This isn’t a scenario where sub-$100 smartwatches vanish from the market overnight. It’s much more likely to look like a gradual thinning of the lineup: fewer new budget models launched each year, existing budget models staying on shelves longer without a refresh because replacing them isn’t profitable at current component costs, and the cheapest available “new” option creeping up toward $110-130 over a couple of years rather than staying anchored under $100. For shoppers, that shows up less as sticker shock on a specific product and more as fewer genuinely new choices at the low end of the market compared with previous years.

Why the Sub-$100 Segment Specifically Is Exposed

Putting the myths aside, here’s the actual mechanism worth understanding: budget smartwatch manufacturers compete almost entirely on price within a narrow band — shoppers comparing sub-$100 options are often deciding between models just a few dollars apart. That price sensitivity means manufacturers can’t easily pass component cost increases straight through without losing the sale to a competitor, or without the device drifting out of the “budget” category shoppers are searching for in the first place. Combine that with generally low margins to begin with, and the more likely outcome — if the memory shortage’s cost pressure does eventually reach smartwatches — isn’t higher price tags on the models you already know. It’s some of those models simply not getting a next generation, replaced instead by a version with a slightly smaller feature set at the same price, or not replaced at all.

Which Brands Dominate the Sub-$100 Category, and Are Any More Exposed Than Others?

The budget smartwatch tier is populated mostly by brands like Amazfit, Xiaomi’s wearable lineup, Noise, boAt, and a long tail of smaller manufacturers, alongside occasional entry-level models from bigger names like Fitbit and Samsung. This matters because Xiaomi/Redmi has already publicly warned customers to expect 20-30% price hikes in 2026 across its broader product range, citing memory costs directly — and Xiaomi’s wearable arm draws on the same corporate supply chain and cost pressure as its phones. That makes brands with a large, price-sensitive budget wearable catalog arguably the ones most likely to feel this first, simply because they have the most sub-$100 SKUs exposed to the same thin-margin math described above. Larger diversified brands like Samsung or Fitbit, which sell budget models alongside much more profitable premium lines, have more flexibility to cross-subsidize a budget model for longer if they choose to.

Does This Affect Kids’ Smartwatches and Other Ultra-Budget Wearables Too?

Yes, and arguably even more acutely. Kids’ smartwatches, basic step-counter bands, and other ultra-budget wearables often sell in the $20-50 range — below even the sub-$100 tier this article focuses on — and typically run on the thinnest margins in the entire wearable category. If the segment most at risk is defined by margin thinness rather than price point alone, these ultra-budget devices sit at the far end of that risk curve. The same logic applies: a manufacturer is more likely to discontinue or consolidate an ultra-budget model than to raise its price by an amount large enough to matter, especially in a category where parents and casual buyers are shopping almost entirely on price.

What Budget Smartwatch Buyers Should Do Right Now

The Bottom Line

Budget smartwatches under $100 aren’t confirmed to be disappearing — no manufacturer has said so directly. But the economics of thin-margin hardware during a structural, multi-year memory chip shortage point toward discontinued models being the more likely outcome over outright price hikes, following the same pattern Gartner has already forecast for sub-$500 laptops. If there’s a specific budget smartwatch on your list, buying it while it’s still on shelves is a reasonably safe move. You can check current budget smartwatch options on Amazon to see what’s still available at today’s prices, and treat next year’s product lineups as the real test of whether this risk plays out the way the laptop market’s did.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are budget smartwatches under $100 going to disappear in 2026?
Not confirmed, but it's a real risk. No brand has announced discontinuing a sub-$100 smartwatch specifically because of the memory chip shortage as of August 2026, but analysts note thin-margin budget electronics are generally the first casualties when component costs rise, since there's little room to absorb higher costs without raising the price enough to leave the budget tier entirely.
Why would cheap smartwatches be more at risk than expensive ones?
Margin. A $600 premium smartwatch can absorb a few extra dollars in component costs without shoppers noticing. A $50-90 budget watch often has only a few dollars of margin built in, so the same cost increase is proportionally much larger and harder to absorb without either raising the price out of the budget category or discontinuing the model.
Has this happened before in another product category?
Yes — Gartner is forecasting that the sub-$500 laptop segment will disappear entirely by 2028 because of the same memory chip shortage, as manufacturers can no longer build a profitable ultra-budget laptop at current component costs. Budget smartwatches follow a similar cost structure, just at a smaller scale.
Is this the same as the 2021 global chip shortage?
No. The 2021 shortage was driven by pandemic-related factory shutdowns and a temporary demand spike, and it mostly caused longer wait times rather than permanent price increases. The 2026 shortage is driven by structural AI data-center demand for memory chips and is forecast by analysts to persist through 2027 and possibly beyond, which is why the discontinuation risk is being taken more seriously this time.
What should I do if I want a budget smartwatch?
Buy the specific model you want sooner rather than later if you've found one you like at a good price. Waiting doesn't come with a clear upside — no brand has cut prices, and the larger risk is the model getting discontinued or replaced with a lower-spec version, not that it gets cheaper.